Nik on the Numbers
The Conservative advantage over the NDP stands at eight percentage points as the campaign enters its final weekend.
Conservative support nationally is 38.0% followed by the NDP at 29.6%, the Liberals at 23.3%, the BQ at 5.2% and the Greens at 3.1%.
The Liberals and the Conservatives are statistically tied for the lead in Atlantic Canada at 37.8% and 34.5% respectively followed by the NDP at 23.0% and the Greens at 2.0%.
In Quebec, the NDP lead the pack with the support of 39.0% of decided voters, followed by the Bloc at 22.2%, the Liberals at 19.1%, the Tories at 16.3% and the Greens at 1.9%.
In Ontario, the Tories are at 35.3%, followed by the Liberals at 31.7%, the NDP at 28.5%, and the Green Party at 3.8%.
Tory support continues to increase in the Prairies and has now hit a high of 65.1%, with the NDP a very distant second at 19.4%, the Liberals at 13.3% and the Greens at 2.2%.
Support for the parties in BC is relatively unchanged with the Tories at 43.5%, the NDP at 34.7%, followed by the Liberals at 16.2% and the Greens at 5.5%.
Party platform remains the top vote driver at 49.3% of Canadians.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question:
For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 28th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1021). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1048 committed voters)
Conservative 38.0% (+1.6)
NDP 29.6% (-1.6)
Liberal 23.3% (+1.3)
Bloc Quebecois 5.2% (-0.5)
Green 3.1% (-0.9)
*Undecided 12.7% (-2.3)
Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 28th (n=1,200).
Party Policies 49.3% (+0.6)
Party Leader 24.6% (-0.6)
Local Candidate 15.0% (+0.1)
Traditionally Vote for Party 6.9% (-0.3)
Unsure 4.2% (+0.3)
Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Hey, What's up Jack?
The Conservatives and the Liberals must be scratching their heads and wondering what the hell is going on. Harper was on the road to a major majority, Iggy was getting his resume ready, and Jack, well he was just being Jack. The polls at the start of this campaign had the NDP in a distant 3rd with about 14-16% of the vote, and it was looking like Jack would end up with about the same seat count as he had before Parliament was dissolved.
During this campaign, Harper was very scripted, he kept a low profile for the most part and attended closed Conservative events. Iggy never really connected with the voters. Maybe it was a result of the negative ads that the Conservatives were running leading up to the election, or the fact that voters just never really felt he was here for them. Layton on the other hand always had good approval ratings when it came to leadership, and even sometimes surpassed Harper.
Down in the States during the 2008 election, Obama won that election because he was able to connect to the voters, he was clear on his message, he's a very well spoken person, and he's very likeable. Could Layton be considered Canada's version of Obama? Well Layton is very likeable, he's a great public speaker, and regardless if you agree with his policies or not, he's comes across as a person who really cares for the middle class, the poor, and our seniors.
Will Layton be PM on May 3rd? I really don't think so, but he will be PM very shortly. If Harper wins another minority, which the polls predict he will, then under the rules of Parliament he can take up to a year before calling Parliament back, and give his throne speech which is also followed by a budget. Both these items are considered matters of confidence, and if Harper is defeated, I suspect that the Governor General will not call another election, but will go to the party with the next highest number of seats, which is looking like the NDP, and say to Layton, do you have the confidence of the house, and can you ensure that this confidence will last at least 18 months to 2 years. If Layton is able to make a deal with the Liberals and even the Bloc that they won't defeat a Layton government for 2 years, then Jack Layton will become the Prime Minister.
I suspect that if Harper does win another minority he won't wait the full year, but would call the house back in mid-September. So unless Harper wins a Majority, we could see Jack Layton setting up house at 24 Sussex Drive before the end of this year.
As the old saying goes, an election campaign is a lifetime, and in this lifetime we could see an NDP government.
Until next time!
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Conservatives go after the Ethnic Vote
This afternoon I was in Toronto visiting my parents, when a member of the Mark Adler campaign team knocked on the door. Mark is running against Liberal Ken Dryden. I answered the door and the first thing out of the mouth of this person is how's Passover been. Being Jewish my parents have what's called a Mezuzah on the door frame of their home.
I said it's been fine, and he asked me who I was voting for, and I told him that's really none of his business. In his hand he had 2 flyers. The first one was doubled sided flyer of Harper with the Canadian Flag and the flag of Israel with the heading "Conservatives are the only party that supports Israel" and it talks about how Harper has stood beside the Jewish state when other world leaders have not. To give credit where credit is due that's a true statement.
In the other hand of this campaign worker was a flyer I've seen before with a picture of Harper and the local candidate talking about what Harper has done as PM. So I asked the campaign worker why the 2 different flyers and he told me that they were told to hand out the "Jewish Flyers" to Jewish voters and the other flyer to non-Jewish voters. I don't know about you, but to me that's ethnic profiling, and that pisses me off to no end, but I would not expect any less from either the Conservatives or the Liberals.
One thing I do know is that I've never seen a Liberal flyer that's targeted one religion over another. I also wonder if the Conservatives in ridings like Brampton send out flyers that target the Indian community?
Until next time!
I said it's been fine, and he asked me who I was voting for, and I told him that's really none of his business. In his hand he had 2 flyers. The first one was doubled sided flyer of Harper with the Canadian Flag and the flag of Israel with the heading "Conservatives are the only party that supports Israel" and it talks about how Harper has stood beside the Jewish state when other world leaders have not. To give credit where credit is due that's a true statement.
In the other hand of this campaign worker was a flyer I've seen before with a picture of Harper and the local candidate talking about what Harper has done as PM. So I asked the campaign worker why the 2 different flyers and he told me that they were told to hand out the "Jewish Flyers" to Jewish voters and the other flyer to non-Jewish voters. I don't know about you, but to me that's ethnic profiling, and that pisses me off to no end, but I would not expect any less from either the Conservatives or the Liberals.
One thing I do know is that I've never seen a Liberal flyer that's targeted one religion over another. I also wonder if the Conservatives in ridings like Brampton send out flyers that target the Indian community?
Until next time!
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Things are getting crazy
As we enter the last week of the 2011 campaign things across the country are getting a little crazy. In the Toronto riding of St. Paul, a home owner, Toronto resident Joanne Mills woke up Good Friday morning to find four tires slashed on the family car and made the decision to remove the Liberal sign from the family’s front lawn.
“I attribute this to Stephen Harper’s attack ads that make people think this kind of behaviour is acceptable.”
Police from 53 Division are investigating 16 cases of cars with slashed tires and scratched paint in the area and have asked the public for help in the investigation. They said cars had their tires slashed and paint defaced between 10 and 11 p.m. Thursday night.
The campaign office of Carolyn Bennet received a call saying the if you vote Conservative this would not happen.
Now over in Vancouver, Liberal Ujjal Dosanjh has filed a complaint with Elections Canada after one of the men acquitted in the Air India bombings endorsed his Conservative rival.
Dosanjh said his campaign learned Friday about the April 6 meeting at B.C. Khalsa School in which teachers and parents were urged to support Conservative Wai Young.
Dosanjh, the incumbent in Vancouver South, said Young was at the meeting along with Ripudaman Singh Malik, one of the Khalsa School founders.
Malik and another man, Ajaib Singh Bagri, were found not guilty in 2005 in the 1985 Air India bombing in which 331 people were killed in two explosions.
Now over to Quebec, never before seen in Canadian politics, the New Democratic Party has jumped to the top of the heap in Quebec, ahead of even the Bloc Québécois.
A new poll released by CROP, published in La Presse Thursday, shows that the NDP is the choice for 36 per cent of survey respondents, compared to 31 per cent for the Bloc. The Tories and Liberals trail at 17- and 13 per cent support respectively.
If the support holds it could lead to a breakthrough for the left wing party in the province.
Of course in my riding of Simcoe Grey you have the NeoCon, Dr. Kellie Leitch, facing off against the Icon, Helena Guergis. At each of the All-Candidate meetings Leitch made it a point to say she's the only true Conservative candidate, and Guergis made it a point to say that she's an Independant Conservative. With the Conservatives fighting among themselves, this riding could go red next week for the first time since 2004.
While we are on the topic of Simcoe Grey, reports from all of the campaigns are coming in that their signs have been removed or destroyed. Like the title of this posting says, "Things are getting crazy".
Until next time!
“I attribute this to Stephen Harper’s attack ads that make people think this kind of behaviour is acceptable.”
Police from 53 Division are investigating 16 cases of cars with slashed tires and scratched paint in the area and have asked the public for help in the investigation. They said cars had their tires slashed and paint defaced between 10 and 11 p.m. Thursday night.
The campaign office of Carolyn Bennet received a call saying the if you vote Conservative this would not happen.
Now over in Vancouver, Liberal Ujjal Dosanjh has filed a complaint with Elections Canada after one of the men acquitted in the Air India bombings endorsed his Conservative rival.
Dosanjh said his campaign learned Friday about the April 6 meeting at B.C. Khalsa School in which teachers and parents were urged to support Conservative Wai Young.
Dosanjh, the incumbent in Vancouver South, said Young was at the meeting along with Ripudaman Singh Malik, one of the Khalsa School founders.
Malik and another man, Ajaib Singh Bagri, were found not guilty in 2005 in the 1985 Air India bombing in which 331 people were killed in two explosions.
Now over to Quebec, never before seen in Canadian politics, the New Democratic Party has jumped to the top of the heap in Quebec, ahead of even the Bloc Québécois.
A new poll released by CROP, published in La Presse Thursday, shows that the NDP is the choice for 36 per cent of survey respondents, compared to 31 per cent for the Bloc. The Tories and Liberals trail at 17- and 13 per cent support respectively.
If the support holds it could lead to a breakthrough for the left wing party in the province.
Of course in my riding of Simcoe Grey you have the NeoCon, Dr. Kellie Leitch, facing off against the Icon, Helena Guergis. At each of the All-Candidate meetings Leitch made it a point to say she's the only true Conservative candidate, and Guergis made it a point to say that she's an Independant Conservative. With the Conservatives fighting among themselves, this riding could go red next week for the first time since 2004.
While we are on the topic of Simcoe Grey, reports from all of the campaigns are coming in that their signs have been removed or destroyed. Like the title of this posting says, "Things are getting crazy".
Until next time!
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Latest Nanos Tracking Numbers
Nik on the Numbers
Support for the federal parties remained relatively stable overnight with some key regional trends. At we near the close of the campaign, it is the distribution of party support in the regions which will be critical to monitor.
Conservative support in British Columbia continues to trend down but the Tories hold on to their lead. The Conservatives in BC are at 35.9% followed by the Liberals at 27.3, the NDP at 25.5% and the Green Party at 8.6%.
Battleground Ontario has the Tories at 42.8% followed by the Liberals at 37.4%, the NDP at 17.1%. In Quebec, Bloc support stands at 38.7% with a three way tie among the federalist parties with the NDP at 19.5%, the Conservatives at 18.7% and the Liberals at 17.7%.
The Conservatives are doing well in the Prairies with a very comfortable 35 point lead over the second place Liberals.
Party policy continues to be cited as the top factor in influencing the vote by a majority of Canadians at 53.4%.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
MethodologyA national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question:
For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 15th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1020). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1003 committed voters)
Conservative 39.0% (+0.2)
Liberal 28.3% (-0.5)
NDP 18.4% (-0.8)
Bloc Quebecois 9.6% (+1.1)
Green 3.6% (+0.2)
*Undecided 16.4% (+1.1)
Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 15th (n=1,200).
Party Policies 53.4% (-0.8)
Party Leader 23.3% (+0.1)
Local Candidate 11.8% (+0.2)
Traditionally Vote for Party 8.5% (+0.7)
Unsure 3.1% (NC)
Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".
Support for the federal parties remained relatively stable overnight with some key regional trends. At we near the close of the campaign, it is the distribution of party support in the regions which will be critical to monitor.
Conservative support in British Columbia continues to trend down but the Tories hold on to their lead. The Conservatives in BC are at 35.9% followed by the Liberals at 27.3, the NDP at 25.5% and the Green Party at 8.6%.
Battleground Ontario has the Tories at 42.8% followed by the Liberals at 37.4%, the NDP at 17.1%. In Quebec, Bloc support stands at 38.7% with a three way tie among the federalist parties with the NDP at 19.5%, the Conservatives at 18.7% and the Liberals at 17.7%.
The Conservatives are doing well in the Prairies with a very comfortable 35 point lead over the second place Liberals.
Party policy continues to be cited as the top factor in influencing the vote by a majority of Canadians at 53.4%.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
MethodologyA national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question:
For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 15th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1020). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1003 committed voters)
Conservative 39.0% (+0.2)
Liberal 28.3% (-0.5)
NDP 18.4% (-0.8)
Bloc Quebecois 9.6% (+1.1)
Green 3.6% (+0.2)
*Undecided 16.4% (+1.1)
Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 15th (n=1,200).
Party Policies 53.4% (-0.8)
Party Leader 23.3% (+0.1)
Local Candidate 11.8% (+0.2)
Traditionally Vote for Party 8.5% (+0.7)
Unsure 3.1% (NC)
Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".
Friday, April 15, 2011
S@it HARPER DID
Came across this interesting website www.shitharperdid.com which kind of sums up all the negative Harper has done since becoming PM.
Here's another interesting video to watch
Here's the final video from the website..Enjoy
Here's another interesting video to watch
Here's the final video from the website..Enjoy
Latest Numbers from Nik Nanos
The Harper Conservatives hold a 10 point advantage over the Ignatieff Liberals looking at the three day tracking ending April 14. Overall, support for the NDP continues to incrementally improve over the past six nights. The improvement has largely been driven by an increase in NDP support in both Ontario and British Columbia.
Tory fortunes continue to slide in British Columbia although the Tories still enjoy a lead. The ballot numbers in BC stand at 38.7% for the Conservatives, 26.6% for the Liberals, 23.0% for the NDP and 11.0% for the Green Party of Canada.
Battleground Ontario remains a tight race with the Conservatives at 39.7% and the Liberals at 39.0% followed by the NDP at 18.2% and the Greens a 3.1% while the Tories continue to have a commanding lead in the Prairies with 56.5% support.
In the wake of the French leaders' debate the BQ enjoy a comfortable lead while the three federalist parties are statistically tied.
More than one in two Canadians (53.6%) cited policy as their top vote driver.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question:
For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 13th (n=1,201; committed voters only n=1019). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1020 committed voters)
Conservative 38.7% (-0.2)
Liberal 28.8% (-2.3)
NDP 18.6% (+0.3)
Bloc Quebecois 9.0% (+1.5)
Green 3.7% (+0.6)
*Undecided 15.0% (-0.2)
Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 13th (n=1,200).
Traditionally Vote for Party 7.9% (+0.9)
Party Leader 23.4% (+0.3)
Party Policies 53.6% (-0.9)
Local Candidate 11.6% (-0.9)
Unsure 3.5% (+0.6)
Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".
Tory fortunes continue to slide in British Columbia although the Tories still enjoy a lead. The ballot numbers in BC stand at 38.7% for the Conservatives, 26.6% for the Liberals, 23.0% for the NDP and 11.0% for the Green Party of Canada.
Battleground Ontario remains a tight race with the Conservatives at 39.7% and the Liberals at 39.0% followed by the NDP at 18.2% and the Greens a 3.1% while the Tories continue to have a commanding lead in the Prairies with 56.5% support.
In the wake of the French leaders' debate the BQ enjoy a comfortable lead while the three federalist parties are statistically tied.
More than one in two Canadians (53.6%) cited policy as their top vote driver.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question:
For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 13th (n=1,201; committed voters only n=1019). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1020 committed voters)
Conservative 38.7% (-0.2)
Liberal 28.8% (-2.3)
NDP 18.6% (+0.3)
Bloc Quebecois 9.0% (+1.5)
Green 3.7% (+0.6)
*Undecided 15.0% (-0.2)
Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 13th (n=1,200).
Traditionally Vote for Party 7.9% (+0.9)
Party Leader 23.4% (+0.3)
Party Policies 53.6% (-0.9)
Local Candidate 11.6% (-0.9)
Unsure 3.5% (+0.6)
Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".
Monday, April 11, 2011
The tide is turning against Harper
As we enter the first and only English debate on Tuesday night, things are not looking good for Harper and his Law and Order Conservatives. In 2006 Harper was elected on a promise to clean up Ottawa, he was again elected in 2008 with another minority government because of a very weak Liberal leader in Dion.
Now it's 2011 and the Harper government was brought down on Contempt of Parilament changes which compared to the AG leaked report surrounding what could be called illegal spending in Tony Clement's riding for the G8 summit, is to me just a tip of the iceberg.
Time and time again, Harper has proven that his government is worse then the ADSCAM that brought down the Liberals in 2004. We've seen Ministers leave behind secret NATO documents, we've seen Ministers take fits at local airports, we've seen Ministers lie to Parliament, and then deny it in the house, we've seen this government not disclose the amounts spent on jails, and fighter jets, we've seen this government take a 13 billion surplus and turn it into a 56 billion deficit, we've seen this government give away corporate tax cuts while our seniors and low income familes go without.
The Harper Conservatives want to give Canadians a break on taxes , but only when the budget is balanced by 2014/15. So is this the type of government you want to lead Canada for the next several years? Also don't forget whoever wins this election will be dealing with the Provinces in 2014 in regards to health care transfer payments. The Present agreement expires in 2014, and I for one would not want to be sitting at the table with the Conservative government leading the country.
So on May 2nd you have a choice, and the choice is a government under Harper who will destroy our social programs to benefit big corporations, or a Liberal government that has a proven track record in balancing the budget while protecting our social programs which many Canadians rely on.
Until next time!
Now it's 2011 and the Harper government was brought down on Contempt of Parilament changes which compared to the AG leaked report surrounding what could be called illegal spending in Tony Clement's riding for the G8 summit, is to me just a tip of the iceberg.
Time and time again, Harper has proven that his government is worse then the ADSCAM that brought down the Liberals in 2004. We've seen Ministers leave behind secret NATO documents, we've seen Ministers take fits at local airports, we've seen Ministers lie to Parliament, and then deny it in the house, we've seen this government not disclose the amounts spent on jails, and fighter jets, we've seen this government take a 13 billion surplus and turn it into a 56 billion deficit, we've seen this government give away corporate tax cuts while our seniors and low income familes go without.
The Harper Conservatives want to give Canadians a break on taxes , but only when the budget is balanced by 2014/15. So is this the type of government you want to lead Canada for the next several years? Also don't forget whoever wins this election will be dealing with the Provinces in 2014 in regards to health care transfer payments. The Present agreement expires in 2014, and I for one would not want to be sitting at the table with the Conservative government leading the country.
So on May 2nd you have a choice, and the choice is a government under Harper who will destroy our social programs to benefit big corporations, or a Liberal government that has a proven track record in balancing the budget while protecting our social programs which many Canadians rely on.
Until next time!
Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire
BELOW IS FROM THE CBC.....
Auditor General Sheila Fraser has written a scathing letter rebuking the Conservatives for misquoting her in a parliamentary report on the costs of the G8/G20 summits in Toronto last summer, CBC News has learned.
The Conservatives' report, presented as a dissenting opinion to the Commons the morning Parliament was dissolved last month, quotes Fraser giving high marks to the Harper government for prudent spending on the summits.
The report quoted the auditor general as saying: "We found that the processes and controls around that were very good, and that the monies were spent as they were intended to be spent."
But in her letter addressed to members of a Commons committee on Friday, which was received by the clerk and members on Monday, Fraser said the quote had nothing to do with the summits.
Instead, she said, the Conservatives recycled an old comment she made on security spending by a previous Liberal government after the 9/11 terrorist attacks a decade ago.
"The comments attributed to me in the [Conservative] report are completely unrelated to G8/G20 spending," Fraser writes in her letter.
"I would appreciate it if the report could be modified as it is clearly erroneous."
New Democrat MP Pat Martin called the Conservatives' attempt to put words in Fraser's mouth "probably the sleaziest thing I have seen in politics."
"It just shows such a profound disrespect for the auditor general," Martin said.
Fraser's letter is addressed to the chairman of the now-defunct Commons operations and estimates committee, Liberal MP John McKay, and copied to several other members, including Martin.
When the government was defeated last month, the committee had just finished studying the more than $1.2 billion the Harper government spent on the three-day summits held in Toronto and in Muskoka cottage country to the north of the city.
But the Conservatives on the committee issued their own two-page report.
In it, they claimed: "All witnesses brought forward testimony demonstrating strong endorsement of the government's unprecedented transparency to summit costs."
The misquote from Fraser was intended to back that claim.
The incident comes as the Conservatives are trying to douse a separate political flare-up [http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/11/cv-election-ag-report-reaction-1244.html] over Fraser's draft audit of summit spending.
The Canadian Press reports that a draft copy of that audit slams the Conservatives for spending close to $50 million on dubious summit projects completely unrelated to the international events, and misleading Parliament in the process.
The draft report also suggests the process may have been illegal, according to The Canadian Press.
Conservative candidate John Baird, speaking as the former transport minister in charge of infrastructure funding, claimed he has read a later draft of Fraser's audit that makes no reference to the Harper government's misleading Parliament.
The fall of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority government last month forced Fraser to shelve plans to present her final audit to Parliament April 5.
Auditor General Sheila Fraser has written a scathing letter rebuking the Conservatives for misquoting her in a parliamentary report on the costs of the G8/G20 summits in Toronto last summer, CBC News has learned.
The Conservatives' report, presented as a dissenting opinion to the Commons the morning Parliament was dissolved last month, quotes Fraser giving high marks to the Harper government for prudent spending on the summits.
The report quoted the auditor general as saying: "We found that the processes and controls around that were very good, and that the monies were spent as they were intended to be spent."
But in her letter addressed to members of a Commons committee on Friday, which was received by the clerk and members on Monday, Fraser said the quote had nothing to do with the summits.
Instead, she said, the Conservatives recycled an old comment she made on security spending by a previous Liberal government after the 9/11 terrorist attacks a decade ago.
"The comments attributed to me in the [Conservative] report are completely unrelated to G8/G20 spending," Fraser writes in her letter.
"I would appreciate it if the report could be modified as it is clearly erroneous."
New Democrat MP Pat Martin called the Conservatives' attempt to put words in Fraser's mouth "probably the sleaziest thing I have seen in politics."
"It just shows such a profound disrespect for the auditor general," Martin said.
Fraser's letter is addressed to the chairman of the now-defunct Commons operations and estimates committee, Liberal MP John McKay, and copied to several other members, including Martin.
When the government was defeated last month, the committee had just finished studying the more than $1.2 billion the Harper government spent on the three-day summits held in Toronto and in Muskoka cottage country to the north of the city.
But the Conservatives on the committee issued their own two-page report.
In it, they claimed: "All witnesses brought forward testimony demonstrating strong endorsement of the government's unprecedented transparency to summit costs."
The misquote from Fraser was intended to back that claim.
The incident comes as the Conservatives are trying to douse a separate political flare-up [http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/11/cv-election-ag-report-reaction-1244.html] over Fraser's draft audit of summit spending.
The Canadian Press reports that a draft copy of that audit slams the Conservatives for spending close to $50 million on dubious summit projects completely unrelated to the international events, and misleading Parliament in the process.
The draft report also suggests the process may have been illegal, according to The Canadian Press.
Conservative candidate John Baird, speaking as the former transport minister in charge of infrastructure funding, claimed he has read a later draft of Fraser's audit that makes no reference to the Harper government's misleading Parliament.
The fall of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority government last month forced Fraser to shelve plans to present her final audit to Parliament April 5.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Latest Nanos Poll Numbers
Nik on the Numbers
Looking at the latest three day tracking poll completed by Nanos for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, the Conservative advantage now sits at eight percent.
Nationally, support for the Tories is at 39.5%, while the Liberals are at 31.6%, the NDP at 14.7%, the BQ at 8.1% and the Greens at 4.8%.
The Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead in the Prairies and British Columbia. Over the past five nights of tracking Liberal support has increased in the province of Quebec. The NDP slide over the past few nights of tracking has abated.
The Liberals and Conservatives are tied in battleground Ontario at 40.3% and 39.7% respectively. In Quebec, support for the BQ stands at 32.6% followed by the Liberals at 27.4%, the Conservatives at 21.7% and the NDP at 15.1%. The Liberal numbers in Quebec have trended upward for the past four evenings of research. From about 17 to 27 percent.
Party policy continues to be the number one vote driver at 50.2% of Canadians followed by party leader at 22.8%.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question:
For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 8th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1,011). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1,012 committed voters)
Conservative 39.5% (-1.0)
Liberal 31.6% (-0.1)
NDP 14.7% (+1.5)
Bloc Quebecois 8.1% (-1.1)
Green 4.8% (+0.8)
*Undecided 15.7% (-0.1)
Vote Driver Question:
Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 8th (n=1,200).
Traditionally Vote for Party 10.1% (+1.4)
Party Leader 22.8% (+1.0)
Party Policies 50.2% (-0.5)
Local Candidate 13.2% (-1.2)
Unsure 3.7% (-0.6)
Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".
Looking at the latest three day tracking poll completed by Nanos for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, the Conservative advantage now sits at eight percent.
Nationally, support for the Tories is at 39.5%, while the Liberals are at 31.6%, the NDP at 14.7%, the BQ at 8.1% and the Greens at 4.8%.
The Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead in the Prairies and British Columbia. Over the past five nights of tracking Liberal support has increased in the province of Quebec. The NDP slide over the past few nights of tracking has abated.
The Liberals and Conservatives are tied in battleground Ontario at 40.3% and 39.7% respectively. In Quebec, support for the BQ stands at 32.6% followed by the Liberals at 27.4%, the Conservatives at 21.7% and the NDP at 15.1%. The Liberal numbers in Quebec have trended upward for the past four evenings of research. From about 17 to 27 percent.
Party policy continues to be the number one vote driver at 50.2% of Canadians followed by party leader at 22.8%.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question:
For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 8th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1,011). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1,012 committed voters)
Conservative 39.5% (-1.0)
Liberal 31.6% (-0.1)
NDP 14.7% (+1.5)
Bloc Quebecois 8.1% (-1.1)
Green 4.8% (+0.8)
*Undecided 15.7% (-0.1)
Vote Driver Question:
Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 8th (n=1,200).
Traditionally Vote for Party 10.1% (+1.4)
Party Leader 22.8% (+1.0)
Party Policies 50.2% (-0.5)
Local Candidate 13.2% (-1.2)
Unsure 3.7% (-0.6)
Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".
Friday, April 8, 2011
Latest polling numbers from Nanos
Nik on the Numbers
Ballot support for the parties continues to remain steady with the Conservatives having a nine point advantage over the Liberals in the latest CTV News/Globe/Nanos tracking completed on April 6th, 2011. Conservative support stands at 39.6%, followed by the Liberals at 30.4%, the NDP at 17.2%, the BQ at 8.3%, and the Green Party at 3.2% nationally.
In terms of the regional races, the Tories continue to lead in the Prairies and BC however their substantial advantage in BC last week has diminished with a narrowed gap between the Liberals and the New Democrats in that province. In the province of Quebec the three federalist parties are statistically tied and trail the BQ which has 35.8% of support in Quebec.
Party policy as a vote driver has increased to 53.4% from 50.2% and is followed by party leader at 20.7%.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question:
For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 5th (n=1,202; committed voters only n=981).
Canada (n=989 committed voters)
Conservative 39.6% (-0.1)
Liberal 30.4% (+0.5)
NDP 17.2% (-0.2)
Bloc Quebecois 8.3% (NC)
Green 3.2% (-0.6)
Undecided 17.7% (-0.6)
Vote Driver Question:
Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,202)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 5th (n=1,202).
Traditionally Vote for Party 8.5% (-0.1)
Party Leader 20.7% (-0.3)
Party Policies 53.4% (+3.2)
Local Candidate 13.4% (-3.0)
Unsure 4.0% (+0.2)
Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".
Until next time!
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Harper's judgement under fire, again.
So more information is coming out regarding Bruce Carson, the former advisor to Prime Minister Harper. It seems that Carson was not straightforward about his fraud convictions. It's now been revealed that he was convicted on five counts of fraud — three more than previously known — and received court-ordered psychiatric treatment before becoming one of Stephen Harper's closest advisers.
The expression that the inmates are running the aslyum seems to have come true in this case.
These latest revelations raise new questions about Harper's judgment in hiring Carson as his chief policy analyst and troubleshooter. Carson played a key role in the PMO until leaving in 2008, during which time he would have been privy to top secret government files. The PMO asked the RCMP last month to investigate Carson after a probe by the Aboriginal Peoples Television Network.
The report alleged the 65-year-old may have illegally lobbied the federal government on behalf of a company that employed his girlfriend.
This is just another example that the law and order government that needs to be shown the door once and for all.
Until next time!
Liberals release their Platform
This morning the Liberals released their platform and watching Question Period the Conservatives were quick out of the gate to denounce the platform as a typical Liberal tax and spend platform.
Here's the link to the platform: http://www.liberal.ca/files/2011/04/lpc-family-care-en.pdf
After reading the platform the way the Liberals intend to pay for their platform is to put a stop to the 6 billion in corporate tax cuts planned by the Conservatives, and cut out the purchase of fighter juts which would have cost us 35 billion dollars.
Anyway it makes for an interesting read.
Until next time!
Here's the link to the platform: http://www.liberal.ca/files/2011/04/lpc-family-care-en.pdf
After reading the platform the way the Liberals intend to pay for their platform is to put a stop to the 6 billion in corporate tax cuts planned by the Conservatives, and cut out the purchase of fighter juts which would have cost us 35 billion dollars.
Anyway it makes for an interesting read.
Until next time!
Latest CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll
Nik on the Numbers
The Harper Tories continue to enjoy an 11 point advantage over the Ignatieff Grits. Although the overall Tory numbers remain stable, some regional shifts have occurred. The Tories have picked up support in the province of Quebec over the last few nights of tracking but have declined in support in battleground Ontario. From a high of 47.2% in Ontario a few days ago, they are now at 40.8% as of last evening with the Liberals at 37.6% support in Ontario. Looking at the three day rolling average trend for the regional subsample in Ontario - it is a statistical tie.
Policy as a vote factor has slid for the third day in succession to 48.0% but is still clearly the number one vote driver at this point in the campaign.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust vision and competence scores of the leaders.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 1st (n=1,200; committed voters only n=983).
Canada (n=986 committed voters)
Conservative 40.7% (-0.6)
Liberal 29.4% (-0.9)
NDP 16.9% (+0.9)
Bloc Quebecois 8.0% (-0.5)
Green 4.0% (+0.3)
Undecided 17.8% (-0.3)
Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 1st (n=1,200).
Traditionally Vote for Party 9.3% (+0.6)
Party Leader 23.2% (+1.0)
Party Policies 48.0% (-4.0)
Local Candidate 15.0% (+1.9)
Unsure 4.5% (+0.6)
Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".
The Harper Tories continue to enjoy an 11 point advantage over the Ignatieff Grits. Although the overall Tory numbers remain stable, some regional shifts have occurred. The Tories have picked up support in the province of Quebec over the last few nights of tracking but have declined in support in battleground Ontario. From a high of 47.2% in Ontario a few days ago, they are now at 40.8% as of last evening with the Liberals at 37.6% support in Ontario. Looking at the three day rolling average trend for the regional subsample in Ontario - it is a statistical tie.
Policy as a vote factor has slid for the third day in succession to 48.0% but is still clearly the number one vote driver at this point in the campaign.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust vision and competence scores of the leaders.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 1st (n=1,200; committed voters only n=983).
Canada (n=986 committed voters)
Conservative 40.7% (-0.6)
Liberal 29.4% (-0.9)
NDP 16.9% (+0.9)
Bloc Quebecois 8.0% (-0.5)
Green 4.0% (+0.3)
Undecided 17.8% (-0.3)
Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 1st (n=1,200).
Traditionally Vote for Party 9.3% (+0.6)
Party Leader 23.2% (+1.0)
Party Policies 48.0% (-4.0)
Local Candidate 15.0% (+1.9)
Unsure 4.5% (+0.6)
Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".
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