Latest Nanos Numbers as of 04/30/11

Nik on the Numbers

The Conservative advantage over the NDP stands at eight percentage points as the campaign enters its final weekend.
Conservative support nationally is 38.0% followed by the NDP at 29.6%, the Liberals at 23.3%, the BQ at 5.2% and the Greens at 3.1%.

The Liberals and the Conservatives are statistically tied for the lead in Atlantic Canada at 37.8% and 34.5% respectively followed by the NDP at 23.0% and the Greens at 2.0%.

In Quebec, the NDP lead the pack with the support of 39.0% of decided voters, followed by the Bloc at 22.2%, the Liberals at 19.1%, the Tories at 16.3% and the Greens at 1.9%.

In Ontario, the Tories are at 35.3%, followed by the Liberals at 31.7%, the NDP at 28.5%, and the Green Party at 3.8%.

Tory support continues to increase in the Prairies and has now hit a high of 65.1%, with the NDP a very distant second at 19.4%, the Liberals at 13.3% and the Greens at 2.2%.

Support for the parties in BC is relatively unchanged with the Tories at 43.5%, the NDP at 34.7%, followed by the Liberals at 16.2% and the Greens at 5.5%.

Party platform remains the top vote driver at 49.3% of Canadians.

Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Methodology

A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question:

For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 28th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1021). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1048 committed voters)
Conservative 38.0% (+1.6)
NDP 29.6% (-1.6)
Liberal 23.3% (+1.3)
Bloc Quebecois 5.2% (-0.5)
Green 3.1% (-0.9)
*Undecided 12.7% (-2.3)

Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 28th (n=1,200).

Party Policies 49.3% (+0.6)
Party Leader 24.6% (-0.6)
Local Candidate 15.0% (+0.1)
Traditionally Vote for Party 6.9% (-0.3)
Unsure 4.2% (+0.3)

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