Hey, What's up Jack?

The Conservatives and the Liberals must be scratching their heads and wondering what the hell is going on. Harper was on the road to a major majority, Iggy was getting his resume ready, and Jack, well he was just being Jack. The polls at the start of this campaign had the NDP in a distant 3rd with about 14-16% of the vote, and it was looking like Jack would end up with about the same seat count as he had before Parliament was dissolved.

During this campaign, Harper was very scripted, he kept a low profile for the most part and attended closed Conservative events. Iggy never really connected with the voters. Maybe it was a result of the negative ads that the Conservatives were running leading up to the election, or the fact that voters just never really felt he was here for them. Layton on the other hand always had good approval ratings when it came to leadership, and even sometimes surpassed Harper.

Down in the States during the 2008 election, Obama won that election because he was able to connect to the voters, he was clear on his message, he's a very well spoken person, and he's very likeable. Could Layton be considered Canada's version of Obama? Well Layton is very likeable, he's a great public speaker, and regardless if you agree with his policies or not, he's comes across as a person who really cares for the middle class, the poor, and our seniors.

Will Layton be PM on May 3rd? I really don't think so, but he will be PM very shortly. If Harper wins another minority, which the polls predict he will, then under the rules of Parliament he can take up to a year before calling Parliament back, and give his throne speech which is also followed by a budget. Both these items are considered matters of confidence, and if Harper is defeated, I suspect that the Governor General will not call another election, but will go to the party with the next highest number of seats, which is looking like the NDP, and say to Layton, do you have the confidence of the house, and can you ensure that this confidence will last at least 18 months to 2 years. If Layton is able to make a deal with the Liberals and even the Bloc that they won't defeat a Layton government for 2 years, then Jack Layton will become the Prime Minister.

I suspect that if Harper does win another minority he won't wait the full year, but would call the house back in mid-September. So unless Harper wins a Majority, we could see Jack Layton setting up house at 24 Sussex Drive before the end of this year.

As the old saying goes, an election campaign is a lifetime, and in this lifetime we could see an NDP government.

Until next time!