Latest Nanos Poll Numbers

Nik on the Numbers

Looking at the latest three day tracking poll completed by Nanos for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, the Conservative advantage now sits at eight percent.
Nationally, support for the Tories is at 39.5%, while the Liberals are at 31.6%, the NDP at 14.7%, the BQ at 8.1% and the Greens at 4.8%.
The Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead in the Prairies and British Columbia. Over the past five nights of tracking Liberal support has increased in the province of Quebec. The NDP slide over the past few nights of tracking has abated.

The Liberals and Conservatives are tied in battleground Ontario at 40.3% and 39.7% respectively. In Quebec, support for the BQ stands at 32.6% followed by the Liberals at 27.4%, the Conservatives at 21.7% and the NDP at 15.1%. The Liberal numbers in Quebec have trended upward for the past four evenings of research. From about 17 to 27 percent.
Party policy continues to be the number one vote driver at 50.2% of Canadians followed by party leader at 22.8%.

The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Methodology

A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question:

For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 8th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1,011). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1,012 committed voters)

Conservative 39.5% (-1.0)
Liberal 31.6% (-0.1)
NDP 14.7% (+1.5)
Bloc Quebecois 8.1% (-1.1)
Green 4.8% (+0.8)
*Undecided 15.7% (-0.1)

Vote Driver Question:

Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 8th (n=1,200).

Traditionally Vote for Party 10.1% (+1.4)
Party Leader 22.8% (+1.0)
Party Policies 50.2% (-0.5)
Local Candidate 13.2% (-1.2)
Unsure 3.7% (-0.6)

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