Nik on the Numbers
The Harper Tories continue to enjoy an 11 point advantage over the Ignatieff Grits. Although the overall Tory numbers remain stable, some regional shifts have occurred. The Tories have picked up support in the province of Quebec over the last few nights of tracking but have declined in support in battleground Ontario. From a high of 47.2% in Ontario a few days ago, they are now at 40.8% as of last evening with the Liberals at 37.6% support in Ontario. Looking at the three day rolling average trend for the regional subsample in Ontario - it is a statistical tie.
Policy as a vote factor has slid for the third day in succession to 48.0% but is still clearly the number one vote driver at this point in the campaign.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust vision and competence scores of the leaders.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 1st (n=1,200; committed voters only n=983).
Canada (n=986 committed voters)
Conservative 40.7% (-0.6)
Liberal 29.4% (-0.9)
NDP 16.9% (+0.9)
Bloc Quebecois 8.0% (-0.5)
Green 4.0% (+0.3)
Undecided 17.8% (-0.3)
Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 1st (n=1,200).
Traditionally Vote for Party 9.3% (+0.6)
Party Leader 23.2% (+1.0)
Party Policies 48.0% (-4.0)
Local Candidate 15.0% (+1.9)
Unsure 4.5% (+0.6)
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