Latest Nanos Tracking Numbers

Nik on the Numbers

Support for the federal parties remained relatively stable overnight with some key regional trends. At we near the close of the campaign, it is the distribution of party support in the regions which will be critical to monitor.
Conservative support in British Columbia continues to trend down but the Tories hold on to their lead. The Conservatives in BC are at 35.9% followed by the Liberals at 27.3, the NDP at 25.5% and the Green Party at 8.6%.

Battleground Ontario has the Tories at 42.8% followed by the Liberals at 37.4%, the NDP at 17.1%. In Quebec, Bloc support stands at 38.7% with a three way tie among the federalist parties with the NDP at 19.5%, the Conservatives at 18.7% and the Liberals at 17.7%.

The Conservatives are doing well in the Prairies with a very comfortable 35 point lead over the second place Liberals.
Party policy continues to be cited as the top factor in influencing the vote by a majority of Canadians at 53.4%.

Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.

The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

MethodologyA national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question:

For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 15th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1020). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1003 committed voters)
Conservative 39.0% (+0.2)
Liberal 28.3% (-0.5)
NDP 18.4% (-0.8)
Bloc Quebecois 9.6% (+1.1)
Green 3.6% (+0.2)
*Undecided 16.4% (+1.1)

Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 15th (n=1,200).
Party Policies 53.4% (-0.8)
Party Leader 23.3% (+0.1)
Local Candidate 11.8% (+0.2)
Traditionally Vote for Party 8.5% (+0.7)
Unsure 3.1% (NC)

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