Latest polling numbers from Nanos

 
Nik on the Numbers

Ballot support for the parties continues to remain steady with the Conservatives having a nine point advantage over the Liberals in the latest CTV News/Globe/Nanos tracking completed on April 6th, 2011. Conservative support stands at 39.6%, followed by the Liberals at 30.4%, the NDP at 17.2%, the BQ at 8.3%, and the Green Party at 3.2% nationally.

In terms of the regional races, the Tories continue to lead in the Prairies and BC however their substantial advantage in BC last week has diminished with a narrowed gap between the Liberals and the New Democrats in that province. In the province of Quebec the three federalist parties are statistically tied and trail the BQ which has 35.8% of support in Quebec.

Party policy as a vote driver has increased to 53.4% from 50.2% and is followed by party leader at 20.7%.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.

The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Methodology

A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question:

For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 5th (n=1,202; committed voters only n=981).
Canada (n=989 committed voters)
Conservative 39.6% (-0.1)
Liberal 30.4% (+0.5)
NDP 17.2% (-0.2)
Bloc Quebecois 8.3% (NC)
Green 3.2% (-0.6)
Undecided 17.7% (-0.6)

Vote Driver Question:

Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,202)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 5th (n=1,202).
Traditionally Vote for Party 8.5% (-0.1)
Party Leader 20.7% (-0.3)
Party Policies 53.4% (+3.2)
Local Candidate 13.4% (-3.0)
Unsure 4.0% (+0.2)

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".

Until next time!

Harper's judgement under fire, again.

So more information is coming out regarding Bruce Carson, the former advisor to Prime Minister Harper. It seems that Carson was not straightforward about his fraud convictions. It's now been revealed that he was convicted on five counts of fraud — three more than previously known — and received court-ordered psychiatric treatment before becoming one of Stephen Harper's closest advisers.

The expression that the inmates are running the aslyum seems to have come true in this case.

These latest revelations raise new questions about Harper's judgment in hiring Carson as his chief policy analyst and troubleshooter. Carson played a key role in the PMO until leaving in 2008, during which time he would have been privy to top secret government files. The PMO asked the RCMP last month to investigate Carson after a probe by the Aboriginal Peoples Television Network.
The report alleged the 65-year-old may have illegally lobbied the federal government on behalf of a company that employed his girlfriend.

This is just another example that the law and order government that needs to be shown the door once and for all.

Until next time!

Liberals release their Platform

This morning the Liberals released their platform and watching Question Period the Conservatives were quick out of the gate to denounce the platform as a typical Liberal tax and spend platform.

Here's the link to the platform: http://www.liberal.ca/files/2011/04/lpc-family-care-en.pdf

After reading the platform the way the Liberals intend to pay for their platform is to put a stop to the 6 billion in corporate tax cuts planned by the Conservatives, and cut out the purchase of fighter juts which would have cost us 35 billion dollars.

Anyway it makes for an interesting read.

Until next time!

Latest CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll

Nik on the Numbers

The Harper Tories continue to enjoy an 11 point advantage over the Ignatieff Grits. Although the overall Tory numbers remain stable, some regional shifts have occurred. The Tories have picked up support in the province of Quebec over the last few nights of tracking but have declined in support in battleground Ontario. From a high of 47.2% in Ontario a few days ago, they are now at 40.8% as of last evening with the Liberals at 37.6% support in Ontario. Looking at the three day rolling average trend for the regional subsample in Ontario - it is a statistical tie.
Policy as a vote factor has slid for the third day in succession to 48.0% but is still clearly the number one vote driver at this point in the campaign.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust vision and competence scores of the leaders.

The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Methodology

A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 1st (n=1,200; committed voters only n=983).
Canada (n=986 committed voters)

Conservative 40.7% (-0.6)
Liberal 29.4% (-0.9)
NDP 16.9% (+0.9)
Bloc Quebecois 8.0% (-0.5)
Green 4.0% (+0.3)
Undecided 17.8% (-0.3)

Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 1st (n=1,200).
Traditionally Vote for Party 9.3% (+0.6)
Party Leader 23.2% (+1.0)
Party Policies 48.0% (-4.0)
Local Candidate 15.0% (+1.9)
Unsure 4.5% (+0.6)

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".

Latest Polling Numbers

Nik on the Numbers

Although Conservative support remains strong at 39.1%, nationally support has moved away from the NDP to the Liberals in the latest nightly tracking survey. Liberal support is up four points while NDP support is down from 19.6% to 15.9%. The Liberals realized gains, particularly in the Prairies, in the wake of Michael Ignatieff's Western tour. Support for the NDP was down in all regions numerically but within the regional margins of error.
The Nanos tracking has the Conservatives nationally at 39.1%, followed by the Liberals at 32.7%, the NDP at 15.9%, the BQ at 8.7% and the Green Party at 3.7%.

Above numbers are as of March 31st, 2011. If this trend continues it will be a very close race between the Liberals and Conservatives.

Until next time!

May is out - for now!

Federal Green Party leader, Elizabeth May has to again fight to be included in the upcoming televised debates. In 2008 she also had to fight to be included in the debates, and was allowed to take part after uproar from voters across Canada.

What really pisses me off about this is the fact that they allow the leader of the Bloc to take part in these debates. The Bloc is a party only running candidates in Quebec, and their goal is the break-up of Canada, but hey that's fine with the CBC because they have elected members in the house. In the 2008 election the Greens got more votes and a higher percentage than the Bloc, however with our first past the post system they were not able to elect any MP's.

The Liberal and NDP leaders have said that she deserves to be in the debates, and like in 2008 Harper has said no. Some will bring up the point that the Greens have no elected members and therefore should not be included. Some will also say that if they allow her into the debates, than all fringe parties should be allowed into the leaders debates. Well the answer to that question is quite simple. The Greens are running candidates in all ridings across Canada.

Regardless if you agree with her politics or not Elizabeth May should be allowed to take part in the Leaders debates. It's the right thing to do, and it's the fair thing to do.

Until next time!

Our money their friends

Don't forget about the 1.2 billion that Harper spent of our money to host what's now been called the worlds most expensive photo-op. So what can 1.2 billion do, it can help our seniors, our low income familes, money towards our health care and post secondary education.

Harper also wants to give our banks, oil and insurance companies tax breaks amounting to 6 billion dollars. Canada can't afford to have Harper as our PM after this election. It's time for change, and it's time to bring back a government who has a proven record of balancing budgets, producing surplus year after year, and investing in the well being of our kids and seniors.

Until next time!

Text of Coalition Letter - 2004

It seems that the Conservatives want to make this election about coalitions which is something that Harper created himself back in 2004 as per a copy of the letter that he signed with the leaders of the Bloc and NDP.

September 9, 2004

Her Excellency the Right Honourable Adrienne Clarkson,
C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D.
Governor General
Rideau Hall
1 Sussex Drive
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A1

Excellency,

As leaders of the opposition parties, we are well aware that, given the Liberal minority government, you could be asked by the Prime Minister to dissolve the 38th Parliament at any time should the House of Commons fail to support some part of the government's program.
We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation. We believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice has determined, to consult the opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority.
Your attention to this matter is appreciated.

Sincerely,

Hon. Stephen Harper, P.C., M.P.
Leader of the Opposition
Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada

Gilles Duceppe, M.P.
Leader of the Bloc Quebecois

Jack Layton, M.P.
Leader of the New Democratic Party

New Conservative Logo

It's now been 2 days since the election campaign has begun, and this election is not about coalition this and coalition that, it's about a government that came into power in 2006 with the mandate to clean up Ottawa and hold all MP's to a higher standard. The Conservatives brought in the Accountability Act, they brought in the fixed election date law, they brought in several new crime bills, and some became the law of the land.

So what was the key factor that brought down the government? was it the budget? No, it was the Contempt of Parliament that the Conservative govenment was found guility of. Voters I've spoken with don't seem to care about this serious matter, and Harper himself does not seem to care about this either. Don't forget it was Harper that brought down the Paul Martin government on what they felt was the breaking of several laws by Liberal party officials which was labled "Adscam". So is this the reason why Harper is playing the coalition card because he knows he can't win an election on the fact that his government for the first time in Canadian history was found in contempt of Parliament.

Again this election is not about a coalition, but it's about helping our seniors, who built this country live without worrying if they have the money to pay their bills and put food on the table. It's about investing in our kids, in our community, and putting families first.

Until next time!

Coalition, what Coalition

FROM THE TORONTO STAR....PICTURE IS NOT!

Stephen Harper’s bid to stoke election fears about a Liberal-led coalition has been undermined by words from his political past when he joined other opposition leaders in urging the then-governor general to consider “all of your options.”

Harper tried to fire up a Brampton crowd Sunday morning with the spectre of a governing coalition of Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc Québécois unless the Conservatives fail to win a majority government on May 2.

Harper signed a letter in August, 2004 with NDP Leader Jack Layton and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe to then-governor general Adrienne Clarkson urging her to consult with them first should Martin have requested dissolution of the Commons and an election.
“We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation,” the leaders wrote.
“We believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice has determined, to consult the opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority,” they wrote.

This whole issue of coalition is not what this election is all about, but it seems that Harper wants to make it about a coalition. In 2006 the Conservative government came into power with a mandate to clean up government, to make MP's accountable, and to work with the other political parties in governing Canada. Since his first election in 2006 we've seen all of Harper's promises broken. Here's a few of the items that should make ytou think twice before voting Conservative.

1.) Flaherty got rid of the income trusts in 2006 and seniors who invested their hard earned money saw it all go up in smoke with a stoke of a pen. Billions were lost, and Flaherty said he would never touch the income trusts. - BROKEN PROMISE.

2.) Took a 13 billion surplus and turned it into a 56 billion deficit.

3.) Prorogue Parliament not once, but twice to avoid a non-confidence vote which would have brought down his government. When you prorogue, all bills and items before any committees, and the house go out the window and the clock is reset.

4.) Firing of Ministers for questionable practices.

5.) Kicking out of the party Helena Guergis for no reason, and not letting her back into the party after the RCMP found no grounds for investigation.

6.) Spending 1.2 billion of the G8 and G20 summits, while our seniors who built this country can't afford to pay their bills and put food on the table.

7.) Spending 35 billion on fighter jets.

8.) 2 sitting Senators being charged with Election Fraud related to the in and out scandal.

9.) Giving 6 billion in tax cuts to our banks, insurance, and oil companies while our middle class and poor are having a hard time putting food on the table and paying their bills.

10.) High unemployment rate with no lowering seen in the near future.

So Mr. Harper if you want to make this whole election about forming coalitions, that's fine with the rest of the political parties as they won't be taking about coalitions, but they will be talking about how to reduce our deficit, create jobs, helping our seniors and low income familes live a better life. That's what our Canada is all about.

Until next time!